Wednesday, February 10, 2016

In #SadPuppies we trust

So, news flash ...

For the moment, my novel Honor at Stake is now the #1 puppy contender for Best Novel under the recommended reading list.
Compiled by Brian Niemeier, taken from his FB page

To begin with, I would like to thank everyone for their support. I'm still bowled over. I'm still wondering where the wave of Butcher fans are (though they might have looked at last year's Hugos and decided "Why bother?"), but right now, I'll take it.

To start with, I would like to thank Brian Niemeier, mostly for putting together this list in the first place -- if he hadn't pointed out how close all of this was, my fans wouldn't know to make this push. And I would like to thank all the fans who voted for me in the first place.

Now, what does this mean? Does it mean that I have a lock on a Hugo nomination? No.

1) To start with, this isn't a Sad Puppy lock right now.  With a solid surge of voters, I could be knocked off the #1 spot, so keep that in mind. This is not set in stone. If I have any more fans left out there, now would be a good time to dial in, just in case.

2) Now, is this a lock for a Hugo Nomination?  No, people still need to show up and vote for that one, too.

3) There will be ten nominees for Sad Puppies 4, and five for the final Hugo nominations. So, when this list is parsed down, there can only be 5.

This top ten list has 18 people on it.  Let's break it  down a bit.

I cannot see NK Jemisin or Ann Leckie taking a Sad Puppy nomination. I just can't see it happening.

John Ringo has made it quite clear that he will not accept a Hugo, because they never gave his editor Jim Baen a Hugo, so "screw 'em."

We're now down to 15 people for 10 spots, two of which have completely opened up.

However, assuming that everything I just predicted will happen -- and that's a lot of presuming -- that means the list will look more like it stops below JM Stirling.

Take this list from above.  Compare and contrast, eliminating Ringo, Leckie, and Jemisin, and counting the folks from the top down.  And it looks more like this list.
1. Honor at Stake, Declan Finn
2 -3. Seveneves / Somewhither
4- 6. The AeroNaut's Windlass / Uprooted / A Long Time Until Now
7 - 8.  Raising Caine  / The Just City
9. The Desert and the Blade
10 Golden Son 
If you're wondering why I'm counting Golden Son by itself, it's because Vox Day picked him, so I'm expecting his name to be crashing through this list in short order. Vox has himself a lot of minions

4) So, now what? Well, we've got a top ten list that is not necessarily written in stone. The List will be closed out either in February or early March, and then spread around the universe. So the next 20-30 days will probably be important.

Wow, this has been fun. And bizarre as heck. But let's see where this yellow brick road takes us, and hope the paving doesn't include landmines.

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